Fish Still Swimming

To kick things off, I'd like to start with a general post about the Marlins' early season success and their potential to continue it. The Fish have been in first place for most of May, which has come as a surprise to everyone (us fans included). However, many have raised questions about the team's winning ways, and understandably so. How could the lowest-paid team in baseball keep this up all season?

Well here are the issues. The Marlins' starting rotation has the 26th highest ERA in MLB (5.00), lowest amount of innings pitched (277.1) and next to last in quality starts (18). Obviously, the starting rotation is a weak point for the Marlins, which causes the bullpen to be overworked. While the Fish pen has been outstanding thus far, with the sixth best relief ERA (3.15) and the third best opponent batting average (.225), they are also fourth in innings pitched (188.2), which is bound to catch up with them in the form of fatigue and injuries.

While Mark Hendrickson and, up until recently, Scott Olsen, have been the workhorses of the rotation, Ricky Nolasco, Andrew Miller, and Burke Badenhop have been inconsistent in their ability to go deep into games. Miller really turned things around in May, going 3-2 with a 2.43 ERA and striking out 8.49 batters per nine innings, but the rest of the rotation has really wavered. Badenhop could, and probably should, be out of the rotation, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Doug Waechter (1.35, 7.09 K/9) jump in as the fifth starter for the time being. There is some help on the way, as Anibal Sanchez could return to the team around the All-Star break, but Josh Johnson won't likely pitch in the majors this year. Top prospect Chris Volstad, who stunned in spring training, could get a midseason call-up, as could Ryan Tucker. One thing for certain is that this team will need more stability from its starters in order to contend all year.

As for the offense, the Fish have had little problem scoring runs. They are second in home runs (76) and fourth in extra base hits (181), with the fifth highest team OPS (.779), despite missing significant time from Josh Willingham, one of the better cleanup hitters in the NL. However, the team is second in strikeouts (437), which has led many writers to believe this team will severely slump when the homers stop flying out. I can't say that I agree, as the team has done reasonably well in pressure situations (.259/.371/.473 with RISP and 2 outs). The team has shown the ability to "manufacture runs" [thanks, Joe Morgan] with several successful hit and runs and suicide squeezes this year. This offense has the ability to adapt to different situations, and I can't see why they won't continue mashing, especially once Willingham returns. As for the strikeouts, Arizona is third place in the majors behind Florida, and we haven't heard any warning flags about the Dbacks' offense. Yes, this team will strike out a lot. But they will also hit homers and score runs.

On to the defense. The Fish are tied for second worst in errors (45) and have the lowest fielding percentage (.977). The biggest perpetrators have been 3B Jorge Cantu (11 errors) and SS Hanley Ramirez (8). Cantu is definitely on the field because of his bat and not his glove, but he's not without peers. David Wright, last year's Gold Glove winner, has just two fewer errors (9) at the hot corner, so the dropoff in defense from other 3B is not astronomical. Hanley is an interesting case, because he makes some incredibly athletic plays at short, but occasionally boots routine grounders and airmails throws. He certainly has the athleticism to be a solid defender, but needs more focus to get there. The rest of the team is below-average defensively, with the exception of Alfredo Amezaga, who has been Superman in center field. The Marlins' defense hasn't hurt the team in the win column yet, but it will be an ongoing concern for the rest of the year.

Phew! And I thought that would be a quick post! Overall, this team has the ability to win the NL East. Unfortunately for them, so do the Phillies, Mets and Braves. This division will be incredibly competitive come September, and I fully expect the Marlins to be in the race. They won't remain in first place from here on out, but they will contend for a playoff spot this year, especially once the rotation has been shored up (Thanks, Joe Girardi) and players return from injury. Disagree? I'm sure you do, so feel free to comment.