Which Path to Choose?

The All-star break gives Major League baseball players a much deserved break, the same can't be said for baseball executives. This is even more true for the Braves front office as they face the predicament of whether to improve the team for a late-season run, trade valuable pieces (or one piece specifically), or stand pat. While the braves decide which road they'll take at the trade deadline, I'll try to figure out which one it will be and/or should be, what each would involve, and why they would be considered.

Option #1: Going For Broke

Why?: Well, it's been done before. The problem is not the amount of games (6.5 could be made up by the end of the month w/o any type of miracle), the issue is having three teams ahead of you. It's not just a matter of the Braves getting hot and the Phillies going cold (as they have done already this season), but Atlanta would need New York, Florida, and Philly to play .500 baseball--at best--for prolonged stretches.

Why not?: Failure. Last year, Mark Teixeira was brought in to catapult the Braves into first...didn't happen. It was no fault of Tex's. He was one of best players in MLB in August and September, but the Braves pithing faltered down the stretch, and they never really gained much ground in the race. The one positive left after last season was that Tex would be back this year. But now, the Braves are faced with missing another postseason and the possibility of losing Tex for a lot less than they gave up for him.

How?: The most likely "vertical" move for the Braves would be in the OF. The most talked about names have been two Pirates: Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Both are having very good seasons, and are the same age (29). Nady (.321, 12 HR) has less power than Bay (.287, 19 HR), but hits for a higher average. Of the two, Bay would be the more likely for the Braves to want because he's under contract in '09, and is thought to be the more talented player. However, because of those positives, a trade for Bay would require more than one for Nady.

Option #2: Looking to the Future

Why?: It's been a long time since Atlanta was a seller at the deadline. Even when the Braves finished out of the race all the time in the '80's, they were so bad that most of the time they didn't have anything anyone would want. (Doyle Alexander being the most notable exception) This year, however, the Braves have Teixeira, a piece that could help a lot of teams and recover a good bit of what was lost from the farm system when he was acquired.

Why Not?: If the Braves still think they have a chance at the playoffs, then trading Tex would obviously be counter-productive. Trading Tex would also be an admission by the front office that the deal from last year didn't work, and those executive types can be very, very reluctant to say they were wrong.

How?: The most likely suitors in a deal involving Texeira would be the Angels, Dodgers, and D-backs. The Braves asking price will probably be 1 of the team's top-five prospects, an MLB first-basemen (All three have pretty good, and very similar young 1B; Kotchman for the Angels, Loney for the Dodgers, and Jackson for Arizona), and another prospect in the top 15-20 range. Another guy the Braves will get a lot of inquiries about is Will Ohman. In fact, Will is more likely than Tex to get traded, if only because it's an easier deal to work out.

Option #3: Standing Pat

Why?: Well.... dumber things have happened. Oh wait, I forgot the company line: The Braves have Hampton, Glavine, Diaz, etc. coming off the DL! That's the equivalant of a blockbuster deadline deal!!!!! How's the Kool-Aid, you ask? It could use a little sugar... and a modicum of reality.

Why not?: No reasons, other than to avoid throwing away the present and future, and keep from demoralizing the fans, and probably the players too.

...Now, in the spirit of the All-Star Break, here's some HR Derby predictions.
Semi-Finals: Uggla, Berkman, Hamilton, Morneau.
Finals: Hamilton over Morneau